https://www.weinvest.live/topics daily 0.75 2020-02-06 https://www.weinvest.live/how-to daily 0.75 2020-02-06 https://www.weinvest.live/home daily 1.0 2021-05-04 https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e39e4e186da2d3047f96247/t/608c77ff7ec80b52e28445e8/1619818509489/screen+shot+of+25+ETFs.JPG HOME You must do your homework. Compare, research, then invest in many tickers, to diversify and get expected efficiency. Adjust every week, so your portfolio moves to the future efficient frontier, in both good times and bad. We collect all relevant technical, fundamental, historical data into a spreadsheet, then send it to you every month, to help you invest on the efficient frontier. Or you can email your portfolio to our server and get back suggestions on the smallest changes that will improve your portfolio’s efficiency the most. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e39e4e186da2d3047f96247/t/608c81c26152873708c9a714/1619821005416/Predict+Ahead+on+Efficient+Frontier.PNG HOME Can we predict ahead the most efficient tickers using the same data? I.e. predicting drop, gain, efficiency at 0Y, then at +0.5Y, instead of measuring at past -1Y or -0.5Y. You can inspect the 4 efficient frontier curves at top-right, for a time shift of 0.5Y between the 4 curves. Smaller time shift means less accurate, little to no prediction. Larger oscillation amplitude means a scaling up bias, an artifact of curve extrapolation with derivatives when future data is missing. You clearly see the limit of predicting farther futures. Between 0Y and +0.5Y, there is less time shift or look ahead, especially at 2008-2009. The larger slope of efficient frontier means we are predicting gain that is larger, or drop that is smaller, or both, so the efficiency is too good to be true, a very dangerous systematic error. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e39e4e186da2d3047f96247/t/608c82ccb39de4473e851bdd/1619821272280/Performance+if+Invest+on+the+Efficient+Frontier+-1.PNG HOME Your portfolio return will be impressive, compared to your exposed risk, even in 2008. Buy and hold for 1+ year will result in a smaller return, because some of the best investments swing away from the efficient frontier, as others move towards the future efficient frontier. Notice how risk and return are much higher now compared to a few years ago. Can we apply formulas to market data to reveal trends to help us predict and invest, without stock tips and biases? Sure we can. With past data, we measure past risk, return, efficiency so you see the past performances to compare and select ETFs and stocks in both good times and bad. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e39e4e186da2d3047f96247/t/608c728a1d49ce7327c1683f/1619817125843/Efficient+and+Swing+Frontiers.png HOME We show you the Efficient Frontier: tickers with min risk and max return, in both good times and bad. You should invest on the Efficient Frontier, after you check all the fundamentals, technicals, and past performances. Or invest on the Swing Frontier, efficient tickers with decreasing risk and increasing return, swinging fast towards the Efficient Frontier. No stock tip, just trend computed from data, so you can compound your savings with the best in the market. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e39e4e186da2d3047f96247/t/608c6f278618da647d3c3e66/1619816271804/Efficient+Frontier+in+the+Future+and+Long+Term.jpg HOME Do you want to see risk & return for all investments, then compare fundamentals, to select the most efficient? We measure risk as standard deviation from extreme drops, sensitive to the few that scare you the most. We predict future gain for normal markets, measure crash resistance from recent market corrections. Download spreadsheet to check out where your favorite investments are, relative to others in the market. https://www.weinvest.live/row-x-column-x-detail daily 0.75 2021-04-30 https://www.weinvest.live/get-spreadsheets daily 0.75 2021-05-04 https://www.weinvest.live/get-suggestions daily 0.75 2021-05-04 https://www.weinvest.live/how-to-find-efficient-tickers daily 0.75 2021-05-02 https://www.weinvest.live/how-to-set-limit-orders daily 0.75 2021-05-02 https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e39e4e186da2d3047f96247/t/5f35ac9a597c833d20563d89/1619918849720/Limit+Orders+with+Exponential+Amount.jpg Set Limit Orders Always buy lower than current price, at Price - Limit. Always sell higher than current price, at Price + Limit. Your order will hit in 1-2-4 weeks. No fear of missing out. Program 2-3-4 exponential orders instead of timing 1 big one and miss it. Buy/Sell 2^n larger amount * (0.5, 1, 2, 4), to be triggered at 1/2^n smaller probability = (0.31, 0.16, 0.08, 0.03), by using limit orders with wider Limit *(0.5, 1, 1.5, 2), to automatically buy/sell more if price swings in your favor. Never buy when tickers are hot, wait for mean reversion. Buy more when phase is near Slow-Lo, before Fast-Up. Sell more when phase is near Slow-Hi, before Fast-Dn, to profit from the big swing at optimal phase, lasting 2 months if period is 2 years. Never sell when the market crashes. Wait for market to bounce back 50%-70% before you sell. Instead, use your cash to buy on sale your list of most efficient tickers. Always research ahead, then program your buy/sell orders every weekend. https://www.weinvest.live/how-to-build-efficient-portfolio daily 0.75 2021-05-02 https://www.weinvest.live/disclaimer daily 0.75 2021-05-04 https://www.weinvest.live/be-aware-of-blind-spots-1 daily 0.75 2021-05-03 https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e39e4e186da2d3047f96247/t/5f47dcfd123c861ab8694065/1598545168951/investor+bias.png Blind Spots Be aware of investor biases, as our brain have cognitive biases, so train yourself to recognize these biases and devise a system to avoid the roller coaster on the right as much as possible. We pledge to improve formulas and algorithms to minimize systematic errors. We will give no stock tips, only data-driven suggestions based on your current portfolios and the future efficient frontier, so that millions of investors can custom their selections and allocations differently. We will never distort the market and mistakenly lead you to buy high and sell low. We believe in the law of large numbers, in equal access to data and technology, to let all of us ride the big market trends. https://www.weinvest.live/plan-top-down-1 daily 0.75 2021-05-03 https://www.weinvest.live/planned-future-work-1 daily 0.75 2021-05-03 https://www.weinvest.live/improve-until-all-work-1 daily 0.75 2021-05-03 https://www.weinvest.live/collect-all-in-one-place daily 0.75 2021-05-02 https://www.weinvest.live/check-under-the-hood daily 0.75 2021-05-02 https://www.weinvest.live/improve-accuracy daily 0.75 2021-05-02 https://www.weinvest.live/compare-to-prior-work-1 daily 0.75 2021-05-04 https://www.weinvest.live/frequent-questions daily 0.75 2021-05-02 https://www.weinvest.live/learning-resources daily 0.75 2021-05-02 https://www.weinvest.live/drop-less-in-a-crash-1 daily 0.75 2021-05-04 https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e39e4e186da2d3047f96247/t/608e0217e8aa8063ccaaed5a/1619919392488/How+to+Hedge+Against+Next+Market+Correction.PNG Drop Less in a Crash Market always rotates away from growth tech with no profit before a crash. The most efficient tickers are single stocks of companies that have real profit, free cash flow, little debt, so will drop less like bond. Reduce your portfolio risk by simply moving towards cash=(0, 0). Raise more cash so you can buy efficient tickers at -10%, -20% dips. It is very hard to time and buy at market bottoms, when fear dominates. But it is very easy to program ahead limit orders to buy on the way down, and sell on the way up. View historical curves: Drop, Gain, Efficiency, for recent -5 years. Compare to 2008 (-12Y) to see relative magnitude in red or green. View all Draw Down, Recovery heights, including 2008. There are so many tickers and sectors that do well even in a market crash. Choose large crash resistance = 0.7 * Bounce - Dive, for smaller Dive Beta to drop less, or larger Bounce Beta to jump more. Or choose larger Fixed Income: dividend, pass-through income. Invest in many of them, to get a more predictable total return. https://www.weinvest.live/improve-your-portfolio-1 daily 0.75 2021-05-03 https://www.weinvest.live/buy-low-and-sell-high-1 daily 0.75 2021-05-03 https://www.weinvest.live/invest-with-the-market-1 daily 0.75 2021-05-04 https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e39e4e186da2d3047f96247/t/6091b25f3e4a8214c4051ef3/1620161136189/Sine+Wave+About+Growth+Rate.png Invest With the Market Simplest is to invest in QQQ, XLK, for more tech than SPY, DIA, and save cash to buy at -10% dips. Choose smart beta ETFs to switch to high/small beta stocks for up/down market, sector ETFs to catch the periodic swings, stocks if undervalued, have solid future yields, for max future efficiency. Or invest in active ETFs like ARKK and let the expert analysts select, rotate the innovations for you. 2. You must predict ahead of the market by your holding interval, hoping to buy low now then sell high later, to earn the expected gain, so check the phase of their sine waves to get in/out. Invest with efficiency, not with stock tips, with fundamentals and analyst ratings, always checking (risk, return) point relative to the future efficient frontier. 3. You must grasp why compounding over time means log(Price) is a straight line over the years. You must skip the zigzags that repeat at many scales in clusters like fractals, or wavelets with too high frequency, plus random walk, all too fast for buy-and-hold investors. If log(Price) is straight line, then the slope or gain over the years must be a constant growth rate. Notice the sine wave about this constant growth rate, to capture periodic mean reversions between bull & bear phases. 4. The straight line model fits well tickers that are bond or fixed income. The sine wave model fits well equity tickers with period ~= 2 years, smaller for newer small caps, larger for older large caps. You must spend time to select, research the most efficient tickers, then program buy/sell orders with limit, so that your portfolio + cash are always on the Efficient Frontier. https://www.weinvest.live/about-us daily 0.75 2021-05-04 https://www.weinvest.live/market-crash daily 0.75 2021-05-02 https://www.weinvest.live/growth-rate-sine-wave daily 0.75 2021-05-04 https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e39e4e186da2d3047f96247/t/6090c10f8397ea267977d485/1620099361233/Predict+Price+and+Gain+-1.PNG Growth Rate + Sine Wave Long-term investors must research and choose ETFs and stocks that compound on a straight line, for increasing log(Price) versus year. This means the slope, or return, must be the constant growth rate, which must be larger than the interest rate of bank deposits. However, return is never a constant rate as treasury bills or bank deposits. You see many big bumps on log(Price) curve. The bumps up make you buy high. The bumps down make you sell low. That is how novices loose their money to the experts, or to the machines and algorithms. Take a careful look at the 4 typical examples on the right: QQQ for Nasdaq-100, ARKK for active ETF on innovations, AAPL for mega cap stock, JNJ for value stock. Gain is never constant, messy, but you can see a rough sine wave about a near horizontal line for the long-term growth rate. Can you see a period of 2 years? Switch back to log(Price) curve, you can now recognize the sine wave that swings about a linear axis with slope = growth rate. It is hard to see gain sine wave on log(Price) curve, because your eyes are pulled to the big bumps up/down. But the gain sine wave, with period = 2 years, approximates well the big slopes up/down over the years. Does that mean we can extrapolate from this gain sine wave to find next year gain or price, to decide what to invest in? Yes, you can predict gain at 0, +6 months, or price at +6, +12 months, shown as red dots. No, the prediction error is larger the farther into the future you predict, especially in fast moving markets. You must do further research on the fundamentals, to convince yourself that the growth rate and sine wave are not going to change a lot, because fundamentals are still good, even better? We will use these price and gain curves to convey our unbiased measurements and predictions, to help you invest more safely.